Xi Jinping's secret letter to New Delhi that likely brought India-China ties back to life

Chinese President Xi Jinping wrote a letter to Indian counterpart Droupadi Murmu to test the waters on improving ties, an Indian official familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The letter expressed concern about any US deals that would harm China’s interests and named a provincial official who would steer Beijing’s efforts, the person said, adding that the message was sent across to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

It wasn’t until June that Modi’s government began making a serious effort to improve relations with China, the person told Bloomberg, asking not to be identified in order to discuss internal matters. At the time, trade talks with the US were turning contentious and officials in New Delhi were bristling over Trump’s claims of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan following four days of fighting in May.

Shortly after Xi’s letter to India’s president in March of this year, Beijing published a statement from the Chinese leader celebrating the relationship, describing it as a “dragon-elephant tango.” Soon, his top officials like Vice President Han Zheng were using the same phrase to describe warmer ties between the countries.

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Stung by Trump’s tariffs, India and China took a major step last week to move beyond the 2020 Galwan valley clash by agreeing to redouble efforts to settle their border disputes, which date back to the colonial era. And this weekend, PM Modi will make his first trip to China in seven years.

The thaw in India-China relations carries significant consequences for the US, which had spent decades under successive administrations cultivating New Delhi as a counterbalance to China’s rise. That strategy was disrupted when Trump imposed 50% tariffs on Indian exports over its Russian oil imports, a sudden move that startled Modi’s government.

Henry Wang, president of the Center for China and Globalization think tank in Beijing, said relations between India and China are in an “up cycle,” and as leaders of the Global South, “they have to really speak to each other.”

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“Trump’s tariff war on India has made India realize that they have to maintain some kind of strategic autonomy and strategic independence,” he said.

Dragon-Elephant Tango
This month, China eased curbs on urea shipments to India — the world’s largest importer of the fertilizer.

Although initial volumes are small, the trade could expand, easing global shortages and prices. China relaxed the ban in June but had maintained restrictions on India until now.

“Give the bully an inch, he will take a mile,” Xu last week wrote on X over a quote from Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi denouncing the use of tariffs “as a weapon to suppress other countries.”

The Adani Group is exploring a tieup with Chinese EV giant BYD Co. that would allow billionaire Gautam Adani’s conglomerate to manufacture batteries in India and extend its push into clean energy, according to Bloomberg sources.

Centre recently allowed tourist visas for Chinese nationals after years of curbs. China is India’s second-largest trade partner after the US, and India needs key inputs from China to develop its manufacturing base.

Not an easy road
While there may be a thaw, the two Asian powers are not likely to restore full trust overnight. They have seen each other as rivals for years and friction increased a few months ago when China supplied weapons and intelligence to Pakistan in its recent military dispute with India.

Part of Trump’s recent anger toward New Delhi comes from India denying his claims that his mediation helped defuse tensions with Pakistan. Modi also challenged those assertions directly in a call with Trump in June. India saw a shift in tone from the White House after that, two officials in New Delhi told Bloomberg.

Trump is frustrated with India’s continued imports of discounted Russian oil, which help fund the Kremlin’s war in Ukraine. Modi has shown no signs of backing down, and his government signed agreements with Moscow this month to deepen economic cooperation.