Just Ceasefire, Not Peace

The 12-day war between Israel and Iran may have entered a lull, thanks to a ceasefire brokered by US President Donald Trump, but it is far too early to say that peace has returned to the region. The situation remains volatile, with Israel accusing Iran of violating the ceasefire an allegation that Tehran firmly denies. The uneasy calm is more of a pause than a resolution. Still, there are signs of restraint and a shared desire from Israel, Iran, and the United States to avoid a broader Middle East conflict. The war had every potential to engulf the entire region, and the fact that it has not is perhaps the only silver lining. The US played a central and forceful role in the conflict. On Sunday night, American B-2 bombers dropped bunker-buster bombs on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities. The attacks were precise, with minimal civilian casualties. But they marked an escalation that brought the region to the brink.

Iran, which had vowed to retaliate against any US aggression, showed unexpected restraint. When it launched missiles at the US base in Qatar, it gave advance warning. This allowed American forces to move personnel and assets to safety. President Trump, in an unusual diplomatic turn, thanked Iran for what he called a “humanitarian gesture”. Iran also refrained from targeting other Arab countries hosting American troops—a move that could have dragged several nations into the conflict. For its part, Israel, though aggressive in rhetoric and action, appeared willing to accept a ceasefire. Iranian missile attacks have kept millions of Israelis on edge, and public pressure to end the conflict has likely influenced Tel Aviv’s stance.

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Each party now claims victory. Trump is basking in the perceived success of the US airstrikes. Israel claims it has met its objectives, including killing senior Iranian scientists and military officers, and weakening Iran’s ability to build a nuclear bomb in the near future. Iran, despite suffering losses and setbacks in Syria and among its regional allies, like Hamas and Hezbollah, still retains the capability to retaliate—a fact not lost on its adversaries. The ceasefire, therefore, serves as a face-saver for all three nations. Yet, there are serious concerns. The US, an active participant in the war, is also its self-appointed peace broker. There is no neutral or credible fourth party to oversee the ceasefire. Without an independent mediator, the fragile truce could easily collapse under pressure or provocation. Most importantly, the deeper issue, nuclear proliferation, remains unresolved. Unless the three nations come to the negotiating table with honesty and humility, this ceasefire may be nothing more than a temporary halt in an ongoing shadow war. For now, the world breathes easier. But peace remains a distant dream.