Russia could attack NATO in the next four years, warns German defence chief

Russia is producing hundreds of tanks a year, many of which could be used for an attack on by 2029, or earlier, General Carsten Breuer, Germany's chief of defence, has warned. He added that NATO was facing "a very serious threat" from Russia, one that he has never seen before in his 40 years of service.

According to the general, currently Russia was building up its forces to an "enormous extent", producing approximately 1,500 main battle tanks every year, according to the . "Not every single tank is going to [the war in] Ukraine, but it's also going in stocks and into new military structures always facing the West," he said. Russia also produced four million rounds of 152mm artillery munitions in 2024, which have also not been fully set aside for the war.

"There's an intent and there's a buildup of the stocks" for a possible future attack on NATO's Baltic state members, General Breuer claimed.

"This is what the analysts are assessing - in 2029. So we have to be ready by 2029... If you ask me now, is this a guarantee that's not earlier than 2029? I would say no, it's not. So we must be able to fight tonight."

The German chief of defence commented while attending the Shangri-la Dialogue, a defence summit in organised by the think tank International Institute of Strategic Studies.

Many have long feared an attack on a NATO state because it could trigger a larger war between Russia and the US, which holds a top leadership position. Under Article 5 of the NATO agreement, any attack on a member state would mean that other members must come to its defence.

According to General Breuer, the - an area around the border between Lithuania and Poland, and centres on the shortest path between Belarus and the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad Oblast - is one of the most vulnerable areas.

General Breuer argued that NATO members should be building up their militaries again: "What we have to do now is really to lean in and to tell everybody, hey, ramp up... get more into it because we need it. We need it to be able to defend ourselves and therefore also to build up deterrence".