Shifting ties? Why Trump support among Hispanic, Black voters may spell trouble for democrats

Donald Trump may have won the latest round of political battles, but for Democrats, that's the least of their concerns. As Trump’s support surges among Hispanic and Black voters, particularly in key swing states, the Democratic Party finds itself facing a new and unexpected challenge.

Trump’s outreach efforts have reshaped the Republican base, with the former president increasing his share of the Hispanic vote to 46% this year, according to exit polls by Edison Research. This shift marks a 14-point increase from his 2020 performance against then-Democratic candidate Joe Biden, making it the highest level of Hispanic support for a Republican presidential candidate since George W. Bush in 2004. His gains were especially pronounced among Hispanic men, where his support rose by 19 points, to 55%. Among Hispanic women, Trump’s backing grew by 8 points, reaching 38%.

Appeal through economic and cultural issues

Trump’s focus on economic issues has resonated with working-class Hispanic and Black voters, many of whom have been significantly impacted by high inflation and the rising cost of living. Hispanic Americans, who tend to skew younger and are less likely to hold college degrees than their white counterparts, are particularly exposed to economic pressures. For many of these voters, Trump’s policies on taxes and immigration align with their concerns about job security and rising expenses. About two-thirds of voters in recent polls said they felt the US economy was in poor shape, with 46% saying their own financial situation had worsened since four years ago.

“Republicans have consistently beat Democrats on connecting with voters on the economy,” Clarissa Martinez De Castro of UnidosUS, a Latino-focused advocacy group, told Reuters. “This year has been no exception, especially as economic struggles dominate the conversation.”

Shifts among black voters in key areas

Though Black support for Trump remains smaller, his advances in traditionally Democratic strongholds reflect his ability to appeal to broader minority communities. In Georgia, small Black-majority counties, such as Hancock and Jefferson, moved towards Trump this election, and his campaign celebrated winning Baldwin County, a majority-Black area where Republicans have historically struggled appeal to Black and Hispanic voters has also been bolstered by a focus on cultural issues. Eschewing the Republican Party’s community centers targeting minority outreach, Trump instead leveraged social media influencers, podcasters, and even hip-hop artists to connect with younger and diverse demographics. Campaign messages often centred on cultural grievances, such as criticism of “elites” and claims that liberal policies on issues like transgender rights were out of touch with ordinary Americans.

Trump’s anti-establishment

A key part of Trump’s approach involves tapping into anti-establishment sentiment. By rallying against what he describes as “out-of-touch liberals” and linking immigration to economic concerns in Black communities, Trump has drawn a significant following. His campaign raising issues like gender-affirming surgery and transgender athletes, framing these as part of a liberal ideology perceived to be “run amok.” In a notable television ad, Trump’s campaign stated, “Kamala is for they/them; President Trump is for you,” appealing directly to socially conservative values among minority voters.

Democrats face an uphill battle

For the Democratic Party, the shifts in Hispanic and Black voter bases suggest an urgent need to recalibrate their strategies to retain these traditionally supportive groups. In areas critical to past Democratic wins, Trump’s support is growing. In urban counties, where Democrats have often won by large margins, Harris’s lead has shrunk since Biden’s victory in 2020, particularly among Hispanic and non-college-educated voters.