When Donald Trump said during the debate that crime incidents increased in the Joe Biden-Kamala Harris administration, he was fact-checked. MAGA supporters Wednesday said the FBI quietly adjusted its 2022 figures in recent weeks -- after the debate and the new numbers show Trump was right.
First reported by RealClearInvestigations (RCI), the new numbers show that the raw number of violent crime incidents — including murders, assaults and rapes — rose to 1,256,671 in 2022 from 1,197,930 in 2021, an increase of 4.9 per cent.
In October of 2023, the FBI put out a press release unveiling its national crime data for 2022, which found that “national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7 per cent in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates.”
“I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” College of William & Mary economics professor Carl Moody, who specializes in studying crime, told RealClearInvestigations. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point.
“The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data,” Moody added.
Elon Musk said even the latest FBI crime data "massively understates" the problem.
The FBI’s crime stats revisions reveal how much guesswork is involved in even the “final” numbers often seized on by politicians. The FBI doesn’t simply count reported crimes. Instead, it offers estimates by extrapolating data from police departments that report only partial-year data. The Bureau also makes estimates for cities that report no data. The FBI’s method of generating these estimates changes over time, and it affects the figures they report, RCI said.
First reported by RealClearInvestigations (RCI), the new numbers show that the raw number of violent crime incidents — including murders, assaults and rapes — rose to 1,256,671 in 2022 from 1,197,930 in 2021, an increase of 4.9 per cent.
In October of 2023, the FBI put out a press release unveiling its national crime data for 2022, which found that “national violent crime decreased an estimated 1.7 per cent in 2022 compared to 2021 estimates.”
“I have checked the data on total violent crime from 2004 to 2022,” College of William & Mary economics professor Carl Moody, who specializes in studying crime, told RealClearInvestigations. “There were no revisions from 2004 to 2015, and from 2016 to 2020, there were small changes of less than one percentage point.
So the FBI put out false data, the White house patted themselves on the back and it was
— Tim Pool (@Timcast) October 16, 2024
A FUCKING LIE pic.twitter.com/Z5M79GW2bm
In the Presidential debate Trump said crime was up under Harris
— Shaun Maguire (@shaunmmaguire) October 16, 2024
The moderator fact checked him claiming the FBI’s data says crime was down
The FBI just quietly updated their 2022 crime stats and it turns out Trump was right
This has happened so many times https://t.co/KQ1UhmzYik
Even the latest FBI crime data massively understates the problem https://t.co/6x2uwVemYT
— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) October 16, 2024
“The huge changes in 2021 and 2022, especially without an explanation, make it difficult to trust the FBI data,” Moody added.
Elon Musk said even the latest FBI crime data "massively understates" the problem.
The FBI’s crime stats revisions reveal how much guesswork is involved in even the “final” numbers often seized on by politicians. The FBI doesn’t simply count reported crimes. Instead, it offers estimates by extrapolating data from police departments that report only partial-year data. The Bureau also makes estimates for cities that report no data. The FBI’s method of generating these estimates changes over time, and it affects the figures they report, RCI said.
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